European tomfoolery no doubt plays a part but clearly the war against oil production in this country has a considerable effect on US prices. And the price uptick began well before.
I had oil heat in the late 80's in a large historic home in the Indiana countryside. I don't recall the price then but I do remember thinking how expensive it was compared to my former home with natural gas. Partly due no doubt to the inefficiency of the oil burner. It made a lovely humid heat though. My local Co-OP offered to install a complete geothermal system for free if I switched. (I had to buy the materials) I ended up moving. Check with your local Co-Op and see what they will do. They gave me a new water heater and install when I allowed a metering device. Maybe they have a plan.
mikev - take the "handout". It's your money anyway so it's really a handback. I'd ask the feds for some too. If they give solar incentives to states with lots of sunshine, where solar makes sense, why not an equal contribution for residents of a state with 30-40% less sunshine, and solar may not be as smart.
At least in Indiana, the winter assistance program is a state operation but it's fed money and they have to spend it to get more.
Seems like you should get something for the efficiency increase from the new furnace. aggravating.